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June 18, 2024 Birte Gülk, Fabien Roquet, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Romain Bourdallé‐Badie, Gurvan Madec, Hervé Giordani

The correct representation of the Maud Rise open‐ocean polynya in the Weddell Sea remains a challenge for ocean models. Here we reproduce the most recent polynya openingsin 2016–2017 using a regional configuration, and assess their dependencies on vertical convective mixing schemes and freshwater forcing, both separately and in combination. We test three vertical convective mixing schemes: the enhanced vertical diffusion (EVD), the Eddy‐Diffusivity Mass‐Flux (EDMF) parameterization, and a modified version of EDMF accounting for thermobaric effects. Using simulations for the period 2007–2017, we find that the modified EDMF reproduces the observed climatological evolution of the mixed layer depth better than the original EDMF and the EVD, but a polynya fails to open due to excessive freshwater forcing. We thus use the modified EDMF to perform sensitivity experiments with reduced precipitation during 2012–2017. The imposed freshwater forcing strongly affects the number of years with polynyas. The simulation with the best representation of the 2016–2017 polynyas is analyzed to evaluate the triggering mechanisms. The 2016 polynya was induced by the action of thermobaric instabilities on a weak ambient stratification. This opening preconditioned the water column for 2017, which produced a stronger polynya. By examining the impacts of the different convective mixing schemes, we show that the modified EDMF generates more realistic patterns of deep convection. Our results highlight the importance of surface freshwater forcing and thermobaricity in governing deep convection around Maud Rise, and the need to represent thermobaric instabilities to realistically model Maud Rise polynyas.

Publication DOI: 10.1029/2023MS004106